NFL Week 3 Match Ups: Patriots A Two-Touchdown Favorite Over Bills
September 23rd, 2010- By Bryan Cross

The New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills meet in an AFC East division game in week three of the 2010 NFL Season, each suffering a loss a week prior.  For the Patriots, it was an AFC East loss at the hands of the New York Jets.  For the Bills, it was a blowout loss at the hands of the Green Bay Packers.  Each will be looking to right the ship this week, and in the process, notch their first division win of the season.

There was plenty of hype surrounding the Patriots match up with the Jets last week, but after all was said and done, New England quarterback Tom Brady summed up the second half effort in a few simple words.

“We just sucked,” the three-time Super Bowl winning quarterback said.

This week at practice was not likely a fun one for New England, but they are a solid team at the core behind Brady and wide receiver Randy Moss, and will work to fix their mistakes they made against the Jets.  One area of concern was third down, in which they converted on just 5 of 11.  Additionally, New England turned it over an uncharacteristic three times to New York, a factor that proved to be a difference maker.

On the other sideline, not much went right for Buffalo against Green Bay.  The Bills managed just one touchdown, a Fred Jackson run in a 27-point defeat.  The Bills are 0-2 and come into this game staring at 0-3 if they can’t get things moving on offense.  Quarterback Trent Edwards continued to make some mistakes with the ball, which has put the defense in tight spots.  Head coach Chain Gailey pulled Edwards in favor of Ryan Fitzpatrick for this week, looking for a spark on offense.

Looking ahead at this one for the Patriots on offense, Brady and company will likely find it an easier time to move theball on the Bills than the Jets.  While the running game is inconsistent, Brady, Moss and slot receiver Wes Welker aren’t.  Those three players can change the course of a game for New England, and the Bills secondary better be ready.

Defensively for the Bills, they have to try and limit completed passes to Welker and Moss.  Perhaps there is no better receiver in the game right now who can move the chains better than Welker.  Combine that with the play-making ability of Moss, and the Bills secondary could be in for a long day.

On the other side of the ball, Buffalo needs to find a way to get both Jackson and rookie C.J Spiller involved in the game.  Both are solid players, but defenses have been crowding the box knowing that Edwards or Fitzpatrick can’t beat them through the air.

For the Patriots on defense, controlling the run and getting into the offensive backfield and disrupting Fitzpatrick will be the key in this one.  If New England wins the line of scrimmage on defense, it’s over for Buffalo.  If Buffalo can control the line, look for this one to be a good division match up.

Game Line-

USA Online Sportsbooks and NFL Weekly Betting Lines have set the Patriots as an asserted favorite in this one, at 14 1/2 points.  The over/under is currently sitting at 42 1/2 points.

ATS Betting Trends-

NFL Betting Trends indicate that the Bills are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 contests against the AFC East.  Additionally, the road team is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 head-to-head match ups.

Over/Under Betting Trends-

The Under is 19-7 in the last 26 head-to-head match ups.  The over is 6-2 in New England’s last eight Week 3 games.

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